The UAE is set to deliver another year of exceptional economic performance in 2026, with Standard Chartered sharply upgrading its growth forecast to 5 per cent from an earlier projection of 4 per cent.
This outlook positions the Emirates well ahead of global growth rates and underscores its emergence as one of the world’s most resilient and dynamic economies.
Building on a strong 2025, when nominal GDP reached approximately $569 billion, the UAE’s momentum reflects successful economic diversification, expanding trade networks and robust domestic demand.
While softer oil prices may pressure hydrocarbon revenues, this is expected to be more than offset by thriving non-oil sectors, which are forecast to grow around 4.5 per cent in 2026.
Central to this expansion is the UAE’s strategic role in reshaping global trade flows. As companies seek reliable and well-connected markets amid shifting supply chains, the Emirates has positioned itself as a critical gateway linking Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa.
Standard Chartered projects the country’s total foreign trade will approach the $1 trillion milestone by 2026, with the Asia corridor alone representing roughly one-third of this volume.
Rola Abu Manneh, CEO of the UAE, Middle East & Pakistan at Standard Chartered, noted that the nation is “rapidly cementing its status as a super-connector, navigating seamlessly through global trade fragmentations and thriving within them.”
The optimistic outlook is broadly shared across major institutions. The Central Bank of the UAE projects real GDP growth of around 5.3 per cent in 2026, while the International Monetary Fund and World Bank both forecast growth of approximately 5 per cent.
Emirates NBD anticipates growth of 4.5 per cent, driven by Dubai’s role as a global trade and tourism hub, while the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales projects growth as high as 5.6 per cent.
The UAE’s economic strength is reinforced by sound fundamentals. The country is expected to maintain twin fiscal and current account surpluses, supported by deep domestic liquidity and prudent policy management.
With the lowest loan-to-deposit ratio in the Gulf Cooperation Council, UAE banks have significant capacity to finance domestic growth and pursue regional lending opportunities. Inflation is forecast to remain contained at around 1.8 per cent, giving policymakers flexibility to maintain supportive conditions.
Diverse sectors continue to drive growth, including tourism, aviation, logistics, financial services, real estate, manufacturing and technology. This diversification reduces the economy’s vulnerability to oil price fluctuations and creates more stable long-term prospects.
Government investment in infrastructure, renewable energy, advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence and digital services is attracting private capital, while policy reforms, including expanded residency programmes and foreign ownership rules, enhance the country’s appeal to global talent and investors.
As economists observe, the UAE is not merely weathering global uncertainty but actively converting challenges into opportunities, reinforcing its position as one of the world’s most promising growth stories.
